Bayes' Rule Probability Elicitation

Charles Holt

Information and Uncertainty

Experiment Software

This program sets up an individual decision-making task in which each person obtains a private signal about which of two events has ocurred ("Red" or "Blue") and must report a probability for one of the events. Earnings are structured so that the optimal decision is to report one's true subjective probability, in a DeGroot/Marshack type of mechanism. This setup allows one to evaluate the extent to which reported probabilities match those implied by Bayes' rule.