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Using Backward Induction to solve a game in extensive form |
The picture above depicts a popular game known as the centipede game. The centipede game was popularised by Rosenthal(1981). |
The way to solve this game is to apply backwards induction. If we see look at the next to final node player 2 will surely choose D, taking 101 instead of 100 and leaving player 1 with 98 instead of 100. this is because playing A is dominated by playing D for player 2. So, at the next to final node player 1 will choose D, taking 99 instead of the 98 he would have got by choosing A and letting 2 choose D. This will leave player 2 with 99 and so he in turn a node earlier will chosse D and take 100. And so on- going back up the tree, players 1 and 2 always take D instead of A, winding up with 1 choosing D at the first node in the game for a payoffs of 1 for each player, whereas each player would receive 100 if they played to the end of the tree. |
However, based on experimental evidence this is not the best prediction of actual reality, and asked to play the game, one typically finds even the more sophisticated players moving a fair ways out towards the end before one of them chooses D. For a discussion of experiments using the centipede game click here |
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Page source: http://www.econport.org/econport/request?page=man_gametheory_centipede
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